#JOKE
The white minority government of South Africa was subjected to political isolation due to its policy of apartheid. Few countries had formal diplomatic relations with South Africa. As a result, foreign visits by South African ministers or heads of state were the exception rather than the rule.
Due its being completely landlocked by South Africa, the tiny kingdom of Lesotho was hardly in a position to ignore its powerful neighbour, despite the political differences between the two countries.
During an official state visit to Lesotho, the South African foreign minister, Mr Pik Botha, was introduced to various cabinet Ministers of the host country, including the Minister of the Navy for Lesotho.
Given Lesotho's geography as a completely landlocked country, Mr Botha apparently found the cabinet position to be somewhat perplexing.
Although he was dying to enquire about why such a cabinet post was considered necessary, he realised that the simple act of posing such a question might be viewed as an insult. The last thing he wanted was to be considered as the cause of a diplomatic incident. He decided to shelve the question for the time being.
Prior to his return to South Africa, Mr Botha was invited to a lavish state dinner in his honour during which both he and Lesotho's Interior Minister found themselves getting along very well indeed.
Fortified by this new friendship, and by the alcohol he had consumed, Mr Botha decided that the moment had come to satisfy his curiosity about kingdom's curious ministerial post.
"Minister, I do not wish to be seen to be disrespectful or impolite, but I cannot help wondering why your country has a Minister of the Navy when it has no sea?"
To Mr Botha's relief, the question did not appear to have offended his host in the least. Instead his question produced a wide smile.
"Foreign Minister, I cannot tell you how happy it makes me that you have seen it fit to pose such a question to me. Because I too, have a question I have been dying to ask you, but have been too afraid that it might be considered indelicate."
"And what question might that be?" asked Pik Botha.
"For years I, and all of my cabinet colleagues as well, have been wondering why South Africa has a Minister of Justice?"
Thursday, 15 May 2014
Thursday, 8 May 2014
Air Crash SA 252. A high alitude eBook by Siegfied Walther
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/388676 Also available internationally at #iTunes #Kobo
stores around the world
SEE LINK TO CHAPTER ONE BELOW:
Can the Flight Sim Pilot save the 747?
Why must BA 059 land safely in order for the truth about Air Crash: SA 252 to be revealed.
Why do the Air Crash investigation reports from the NTSB (USA) and NAB (SA) differ?
...
Why must BA 059 land safely in order for the truth about Air Crash: SA 252 to be revealed.
Why do the Air Crash investigation reports from the NTSB (USA) and NAB (SA) differ?
...
Is the South African Minister correct to say that the NTSB is putting the blame on ASA pilots to protect Boeing? Or is there a cover up?
Will Bella Omondi, whose husband died when Flight SA 252 crashed into Gugulethu, find an attorney to take on her case (including the loss of support for her three children) against Air South Africa and possibly the government?
Link to Chapter One below.
See moreWill Bella Omondi, whose husband died when Flight SA 252 crashed into Gugulethu, find an attorney to take on her case (including the loss of support for her three children) against Air South Africa and possibly the government?
Link to Chapter One below.
An in-flight announcement inquiring whether a pilot happens to be on board is one which most passengers hope never to hear. Yet, this is what occurs on a British Airways 747 flight from London to Cape Town.
One of the passengers on board is attorney Eric Gates. His hobby involves flying airliners on his computer using a popular flight simulation programme. Eric had always dreamed of having a chance to fly a real airliner. Yet now, when faced with just such a possibility, he regrets having procrastinated about taking time off work to treat himself to flying lessons.
When South African Air Traffic Control learns that an airliner en route to Cape Town may be under the control of a passenger without any pilot’s licence, they decline permission to land at Cape Town International. Their decision is partly motivated by the fact that the 747’s auto pilot and auto land systems have reportedly been damaged.
The decision is also partly attributable to the fallout from the recent and as yet unexplained demise of SA Flight 252, an Air South Africa Boeing 777 airliner which crashed into a Cape Town suburb, killing all on board and hundreds of others.
All this transpires amidst media speculation that an air crash investigation report relating about the cause of Flight SA 252 has been delayed due to disputes between the US NTSB and South Africa’s National Aviation Board.
When the 747 fails to react to ATC instructions to divert to a smaller military airfield, two jet fighters are dispatched to intercept the airliner. Will the South Africans make good on their threats to fire upon the non-compliant airliner?
Unbeknown to everyone, the 747 holds a key to solving the mystery of Flight 252 and its survival is imperative.
The NY prostitute and the tourist
A couple in their early fifties are visiting New York as tourists. They get lost and end up in the Bronx.
Despite needing to spend a penny, the wife refuses to use the public conveniences in an area in which she feels unsafe. Eventually she succumbs to the golden bladder syndrome, and she decides to risk using a public loo.
However, she insists that her husband stand 'on guard' at the entrance to the ladies in case anything untoward should happen.
Despite feeling that his wife is being a little paranoid, he reluctantly waits for her at the entrance.
After a few minutes, a scantily dressed young lady, who has noticed the husband's awkward vigil at the entrance to the ladies', approaches.
'You looking for something special honey?' she asks.
'Just waiting for somebody,' the man replies.
'That's what they all say,' she replies. 'But them that stand around trying not to seem as uncomfortable as they look eventually find the guts to ask for what they want sooner or later,' she offered. 'So if you're a first timer, and you're a little nervous, why don't you just save us both a lotta time and say so now cause I'm on the clock here if you get my meaning.'
For a moment, the man considered explaining why he was lurking at the entrance to the ladies' loo. But he realised that it would probably sound a little lame and that this would only encourage this lady of the night to persist with her solicitation.
He was also desperate to put an end to this discussion before his wife emerged and found him in what might appear a compromising position which would in turn lead to an inevitable series of questions from his wife aimed at establishing what it was that he had obviously done to cause a busy professional to conclude that he was, as it were, in the market for her services.
'How much?' he inquired, as he hurriedly concocted a way to bring all of this to a swift end.
'For you, two hundred and fifty dollars,' she said, while giving him a bored I told you so look.
'Sorry,' the man replied immediately, and he faked a disappointed look. 'I only have twenty dollars on me.'
Much to his relief, this produced the desired result instantly.
'Forget it honey,' she declared and stormed off down the busy sidewalk in a huff.
His wife emerged from ladies' a minute later, fortunately none the wiser.
After receiving directions which required that they head in the same direction in which the prostitute had walked, he decided that it would be best to cross to the other side of the street.
It was easier for him to find an excuse to cross the street than to risk running into her again. God forbid that the prostitute might see that as a heaven sent opportunity to further berate him for stooping to waste her valuable time with such an insulting sum of money.
If that occurred, there would be no way to prevent his wife from believing that perhaps the real reason why they were apparently lost in this seedy part of the city was to enable him to scout for prostitutes behind her back, with a view to returning later that night to partake of their services after she had fallen asleep.
The relief he felt as he spotted a familiar looking street, where their hotel was located, evaporated in an instant when he felt someone behind him tapping him on his shoulder. Both of them turned around, and you guessed it, his worst fears had come true.
It was the prostitute who took a moment to glare at him with an expression of sheer contempt before she eventually spoke.
"See what ya get for twenty dollars," she explained, shaking her head. ***
See Also: FIFA clears itself in independent investigation? Will Egypt now host Winter Olympics? Also another link to JOKES
http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/11/egypts-bid-to-host-ioc-winter-olympics.html
Mother in Law.... & others
http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/11/mother-in-law-joke-and-courtroom-skit.html
Despite needing to spend a penny, the wife refuses to use the public conveniences in an area in which she feels unsafe. Eventually she succumbs to the golden bladder syndrome, and she decides to risk using a public loo.
However, she insists that her husband stand 'on guard' at the entrance to the ladies in case anything untoward should happen.
Despite feeling that his wife is being a little paranoid, he reluctantly waits for her at the entrance.
After a few minutes, a scantily dressed young lady, who has noticed the husband's awkward vigil at the entrance to the ladies', approaches.
'You looking for something special honey?' she asks.
'Just waiting for somebody,' the man replies.
'That's what they all say,' she replies. 'But them that stand around trying not to seem as uncomfortable as they look eventually find the guts to ask for what they want sooner or later,' she offered. 'So if you're a first timer, and you're a little nervous, why don't you just save us both a lotta time and say so now cause I'm on the clock here if you get my meaning.'
For a moment, the man considered explaining why he was lurking at the entrance to the ladies' loo. But he realised that it would probably sound a little lame and that this would only encourage this lady of the night to persist with her solicitation.
He was also desperate to put an end to this discussion before his wife emerged and found him in what might appear a compromising position which would in turn lead to an inevitable series of questions from his wife aimed at establishing what it was that he had obviously done to cause a busy professional to conclude that he was, as it were, in the market for her services.
'How much?' he inquired, as he hurriedly concocted a way to bring all of this to a swift end.
'For you, two hundred and fifty dollars,' she said, while giving him a bored I told you so look.
'Sorry,' the man replied immediately, and he faked a disappointed look. 'I only have twenty dollars on me.'
Much to his relief, this produced the desired result instantly.
'Forget it honey,' she declared and stormed off down the busy sidewalk in a huff.
His wife emerged from ladies' a minute later, fortunately none the wiser.
After receiving directions which required that they head in the same direction in which the prostitute had walked, he decided that it would be best to cross to the other side of the street.
It was easier for him to find an excuse to cross the street than to risk running into her again. God forbid that the prostitute might see that as a heaven sent opportunity to further berate him for stooping to waste her valuable time with such an insulting sum of money.
If that occurred, there would be no way to prevent his wife from believing that perhaps the real reason why they were apparently lost in this seedy part of the city was to enable him to scout for prostitutes behind her back, with a view to returning later that night to partake of their services after she had fallen asleep.
The relief he felt as he spotted a familiar looking street, where their hotel was located, evaporated in an instant when he felt someone behind him tapping him on his shoulder. Both of them turned around, and you guessed it, his worst fears had come true.
It was the prostitute who took a moment to glare at him with an expression of sheer contempt before she eventually spoke.
"See what ya get for twenty dollars," she explained, shaking her head. ***
See Also: FIFA clears itself in independent investigation? Will Egypt now host Winter Olympics? Also another link to JOKES
http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/11/egypts-bid-to-host-ioc-winter-olympics.html
Mother in Law.... & others
http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/11/mother-in-law-joke-and-courtroom-skit.html
Wednesday, 7 May 2014
Midnight from Coldplay's forthcoming album is a sonic mindblast!
In the darkness, before the dawn...
In the swirling of the storm
When I'm rolling with the punches and hope is gone
Leave a light, a light on...
Millions of miles from home...
In the swirling, swimming on
When I'm rolling with the thunder
but bleed from thorns
Leave a light, a light on......
Leave a light, a light on....
Midnight by Coldplay (out now!)
GHOST STORIES 19 MAY 2014
In the swirling of the storm
When I'm rolling with the punches and hope is gone
Leave a light, a light on...
Millions of miles from home...
In the swirling, swimming on
When I'm rolling with the thunder
but bleed from thorns
Leave a light, a light on......
Leave a light, a light on....
Midnight by Coldplay (out now!)
GHOST STORIES 19 MAY 2014
It's been a while since I have listened to a new song over and over again like I often did when I was younger. I've enjoyed Coldplay's forays into different sound experiences, but nothing they have done before has elicited such a sense of excitement in me about a new & forthcoming album for a long long time.
The track features haunting synth / vocoder infused lyrics which sound a little 80-s retro & futuristic all at the same time. Then there's a brief dance type interlude before the synth vocals return for a final blast. If the band opened a Concert with this song, I would go bonkers.
As it stands there's a video on ITunes using a portion of this song as teaser. I want that album and I want it now. Patience may be a virgin, but I am not! The link to the teaser follows below. Watch it. You should be transported.....
Blue Light escorts for servants? Whose the boss?
On the 20th anniversary of democracy in South Africa, we find ourselves solicited by those who seek office to serve us. And this is done with as much humility as the candidates can muster. After election to office, however, all this humility vanishes in dramatic fashion right in front of our eyes. It is a phenomenon worthy of inclusion in one of David Copperfield's magic shows.
On the day the Gupta wedding party landed at that air force base they were apparently met by police or traffic police and it appears that the entire party were given an ‘unauthorised’ blue light escort to the wedding venue at Sun City. The fact that local motorists were necessarily required to wait patiently for so-called VIPs to pass is an outrage, not to mention an inexcusable abuse of power.
One can only wonder about how many other unauthorised, yet well-connected persons also receive the courtesy of these unofficial escorts. These entourages whizz past so rapidly that it is impossible for anyone to establish the identity of the persons concerned.
Sadly, recent history reveals that the official blue light brigades in South Africa also operate in a manner which violates the rights of ordinary citizens. I need only mention the incident when a provincial Minister’s blue light brigade, allegedly travelling at high speed, collided with and severely injured a young teenager on his motorbike. Of course, one cannot ignore the many incidents where the police escorting such brigades allegedly threatened (and worse) road users who, in the escorts’ infinite wisdom, had failed to give way smartly enough.
One need only Google “blue lights” & “South Africa” to find a host of further tales involving such abuse or similar excesses. Many of these incidents have one thing in common. The taxpayer is called upon to fork up.
Even in the absence of the above, there are two cogent reasons why Blue Light brigades are indefensible.
Firstly, it bears reminding that the recipients of this privilege are not VIP’s, nor are they our masters. They are elected public servants. How easily we forget that it is the voters, who place them in office, who are the masters. Why should any public servants be permitted preference on the roads over those who elected them?
It is only at election time that our politicians display anything close to the humility which is required of a servant. Politicians are in dire need of reminder of their place. Blue light brigades only serve to over-inflate their vast sense of self-importance.
Secondly, nothing any politician, including the president, does is so important that it cannot wait or cannot be delayed by a few hours. It is possibly only in times of war that this might not hold true. For the rest, if the meeting or fixture is important enough, the politicians, like the rest of us, should plan ahead to ensure their arrival in good time. Blue light brigades only serve to encourage poor planning and tardiness on the part of the beneficiaries of this privilege.
In the case of a genuine emergency, such as a natural disaster, no-one could object to the use of helicopters or presidential jets if the president, or any other politician, genuinely needed to move speedily in order to establish the needs of any victims concerned.
Of course, I fully accept that certain politicians, including the President, Premiers and all Ministers should be entitled to a security entourage. However, I do not accept that any of them, including the President, should be entitled to preference on the roads ahead of the real VIP’s in this country, the voters.
A final reason for ensuring that politicians receive no preference on the roads is that it is only by ensuring that they experience the inconvenience of traffic jams for themselves that they might be encouraged to do something about the problem.
On the day the Gupta wedding party landed at that air force base they were apparently met by police or traffic police and it appears that the entire party were given an ‘unauthorised’ blue light escort to the wedding venue at Sun City. The fact that local motorists were necessarily required to wait patiently for so-called VIPs to pass is an outrage, not to mention an inexcusable abuse of power.
One can only wonder about how many other unauthorised, yet well-connected persons also receive the courtesy of these unofficial escorts. These entourages whizz past so rapidly that it is impossible for anyone to establish the identity of the persons concerned.
Sadly, recent history reveals that the official blue light brigades in South Africa also operate in a manner which violates the rights of ordinary citizens. I need only mention the incident when a provincial Minister’s blue light brigade, allegedly travelling at high speed, collided with and severely injured a young teenager on his motorbike. Of course, one cannot ignore the many incidents where the police escorting such brigades allegedly threatened (and worse) road users who, in the escorts’ infinite wisdom, had failed to give way smartly enough.
One need only Google “blue lights” & “South Africa” to find a host of further tales involving such abuse or similar excesses. Many of these incidents have one thing in common. The taxpayer is called upon to fork up.
Even in the absence of the above, there are two cogent reasons why Blue Light brigades are indefensible.
Firstly, it bears reminding that the recipients of this privilege are not VIP’s, nor are they our masters. They are elected public servants. How easily we forget that it is the voters, who place them in office, who are the masters. Why should any public servants be permitted preference on the roads over those who elected them?
It is only at election time that our politicians display anything close to the humility which is required of a servant. Politicians are in dire need of reminder of their place. Blue light brigades only serve to over-inflate their vast sense of self-importance.
Secondly, nothing any politician, including the president, does is so important that it cannot wait or cannot be delayed by a few hours. It is possibly only in times of war that this might not hold true. For the rest, if the meeting or fixture is important enough, the politicians, like the rest of us, should plan ahead to ensure their arrival in good time. Blue light brigades only serve to encourage poor planning and tardiness on the part of the beneficiaries of this privilege.
In the case of a genuine emergency, such as a natural disaster, no-one could object to the use of helicopters or presidential jets if the president, or any other politician, genuinely needed to move speedily in order to establish the needs of any victims concerned.
Of course, I fully accept that certain politicians, including the President, Premiers and all Ministers should be entitled to a security entourage. However, I do not accept that any of them, including the President, should be entitled to preference on the roads ahead of the real VIP’s in this country, the voters.
A final reason for ensuring that politicians receive no preference on the roads is that it is only by ensuring that they experience the inconvenience of traffic jams for themselves that they might be encouraged to do something about the problem.
Friday, 25 April 2014
Was the Xenephobia of 2009/10 in South Africa a prelude to genocide?
I refer to the above very interesting article.
I refer to the above very interesting article.
The following occurred to me.
When the government of South Africa runs out of excuses for non-delivery, which is the price one pays for corruption and a bloated government, you can be sure that there exists an ideal scapegoat who will receive the blame.
Like Robert Mugabe, who blamed his failures on white farmers in an endeavour to prevent his disgruntled, poor and often hungry supporters from supporting the opposition MDC. But for the farm invasions which he initiated, the MDC would likely have come to power. Instead, the people followed their liberator once more, only to find that, after the farmers had fled, food shortages and economic collapse followed.
Hitler did the same thing by blaming the Jews for Germany's woes.
What the ANC is doing now is just a trial run. They know that they will win this election. The real thing will come when they fear losing power. However, the methods the ANC are using to remain in power are of major concern. Telling voters that they stand to lose their social grants if they don't vote for the government is a ploy to profit from the fact that many voters do not understand the difference between the State on the one hand, and the political party in power. Many voters believe that they have the ANC, and not the taxpayers, to thank for their social grants.
Like Robert Mugabe, who blamed his failures on white farmers in an endeavour to prevent his disgruntled, poor and often hungry supporters from supporting the opposition MDC. But for the farm invasions which he initiated, the MDC would likely have come to power. Instead, the people followed their liberator once more, only to find that, after the farmers had fled, food shortages and economic collapse followed.
Hitler did the same thing by blaming the Jews for Germany's woes.
What the ANC is doing now is just a trial run. They know that they will win this election. The real thing will come when they fear losing power. However, the methods the ANC are using to remain in power are of major concern. Telling voters that they stand to lose their social grants if they don't vote for the government is a ploy to profit from the fact that many voters do not understand the difference between the State on the one hand, and the political party in power. Many voters believe that they have the ANC, and not the taxpayers, to thank for their social grants.
More disturbingly, the ANC has been known to suggest that if the Opposition DA were to come into power, the white Madam in charge of that party would reinstate apartheid. Whilst the majority of educated voters aren't fooled, the ANC's failure to address the education backlog in the country means that a significant number of voters do fall for these arguments.
And if you think that I am suggesting that only black or poorly educated people fall victim to these sorts of tactics, you would be sadly wrong. The people in Germany who followed Hitler were supposedly civilised, supposedly educated , supposedly Christian, and certainly white. Look how easily they fell for his racist propaganda - and this in the 20th Century not in middle ages or during the inquisition.
The Xenophobic killings and attacks on foreign black refugees which took place a few years ago in this country was shocking enough on its own. But it is even more chilling if one considers that that this might have been a trial run. I
Consider this. If mobs can turn on, kill and rob successful local refugees from other parts of Africa on the pretext that they are stealing jobs and opportunities from locals, just imagine what could be achieved by directing even greater angry mobs against people are said to be responsible for apartheid and who will be accused of continuing to benefit from it.
The opposition parties are all hoping for a close election. I wonder whether they should be careful about that for which they ask. It could just be the spark the powder keg has been waiting for.
I found it amusing when, during the 2000 US Presidential election, the results were stalled because of disputes and constant recounts in Florida.
Robert Mugabe then made a public and highly generous offer to send Zimbabwean Election Monitors to assist the Americans. You have to hand it to him, it was a once in a life time opportunity for him, and he did not let it go begging.
He was, of course, having his little revenge for the US & Britain's insistence on having foreign election monitors to monitor his so-called "free and fair" elections. Needless to say such monitors were not permitted. But like minded monitors from ...wait for it, South Africa, were indeed permitted.
Yes, it was funny, but ultimately the joke was on him. That US election was quite peaceful (despite the nation being armed to the teeth) and when the US Supreme Court finally spoke, the entire nation accepted the decision and went about their business.
This differs slightly from the obligatory genocide which has often preceded and followed close elections on this continent.
In September 1989, I participated in the Democratic march to the City Hall led by Bishop Tutu and many other UDF activists. The apartheid regime was crumbling and I looked forward to the new, non-racial and democratic South Africa which would replace it.
Today, that dream seems further removed than ever. This is not the SA of people like Mandela, Tutu and Biko, Jay Naidu, and Trevor Manuel,.
South Africa today is becoming a highly polarised society which seems more divided than ever. The ideal of entering politics to serve the needs of the people, and the respect for excellence, for the rule of law, for justice and for a truly non-racist society are all being steadily eroded as those whose incompetence is exceeded only by their greed steadily gain a steely grip on the levers of power. There is a price to pay for such greed, corruption and incompetence, and it far exceeds the forty billion rands of taxpayers money which is wasted each year.
I often wondered about why the Jews in Germany did not leave when surely they could see the signs of the horror which awaited them. But one forgets that they were not just Jews, they were also Germans. And to be fair, could the Jews in Germany really be blamed for believing that their fellow Germans were too civilised and too Christian to fall for Hitler's anti-Semitic arguments. Many Jews must have believed that the anti-Semitic wave in Germany would be of short duration and that common sense would prevail.
In Zimbabwe, about a third of the country now lives and works in SA. Most are not here by choice and would love to return home. Their numbers are divided between the political and the economic refugees.
More and more white South Africans are starting to experience a sense of unease about their future in this country. IF the 2009 Xenophobic attacks on African refugees in South Africa had been restricted to one area, this could have been passed off as an aberration which was untypical. Instead these attacks spread to cities across South Africa like wild fire, and many refugees were attacked or killed, and many Somalis had their business looted. The international community were horrified and FIFA even considered moving the 2010 World Cup Soccer tournament to another country.
We have a government which spent Billions on arms instead of addressing the inequities of apartheid. The masses are growing tired of ANC promises of a better life and violent protests against the government are growing increasingly common. As the cost of corruption and the cost of appointing one's friends and political allies to top jobs instead of using excellence as a criterion continues to increase, the government's ability to address the people's needs will continue to decline. It's a time bomb! But unlike Germany, and Zimbabwe, the warning signs here are anything but subtle.
In such a political climate, one requires political leaders of vision who will resist the temptation to use racially inflammatory language and who will refuse to exploit racial divisions to win elections. And though apartheid was an evil, some twenty years have passed since the first democratic elections in South Africa in 1994. However tempting it may be for the government cast all the blame for the poverty and inequity in SA at the doors of apartheid and however attempting it is to remind people of the evils which the white minority government admittedly perpetrated, it is also time for the government to take responsibility for the twenty years it has been in power since then.
Constantly reminding people that they are all victims of apartheid does little to encourage people or to empower people to take responsibility for their own lives. Secondly, instead of empowering people, constantly reinforcing the victim mentality amongst the previously disadvantaged serves to fuel the sort of resentment which can easily spill over into violence. Also, constantly relying upon past injustice does little for national unity. Constantly referring to the past also emphasis white people in terms of that which happened in the past instead of facilitating a non racial society.
Germans will know what I am talking about. At some point, one has to move away from associating Germans today with those from the past who were Nazi's. Whilst no German wishes to deny the Nazi's crimes, they also do not wish to be associated with or defined by that party or their deeds.
However expedient it may be for the ANC to try to maintain power by resorting to the politics of division, one hopes that they will realise that in the end, if the resentment generated ends up in violence, there will be no winners and many losers.
I can only hope that the old guard of the ANC will somehow find a way to start a new struggle to reclaim the legacy left to this wonderful country by Nelson Mandela.
And may the Good Lord also see it fit to keep Bishop Tutu with us for a while longer. He gave us hope in the dark days of apartheid. And like in the old days where he spoke out against the injustices of apartheid, he continues to challenge the injustices, the corruption and the excesses of the new South African government.
Although I'm tempted to leave South Africa, I will not do so as long as there are brave people like Bishop Tutu around. Fortunately, despite everything I have written above, thousand of South Africans have turned their backs on the politics of race. Thousands of us also refuse to allow ourselves to be defined by our historical roles as victims or as oppressors. More and more people are refusing to permit the government to rely upon apartheid as an excuse for the nepotism, the increasing corruption and the mismanagement which affects service delivery across the country now.
The recent and highly controversial toll gate project in Gauteng is a case in point. It is apposed by unions, workers and by various opposition parties. Whether we choose to be united and empowered by that which we have in common and by our common future, or whether we allow ourselves to be divided and to remain victims of our past will determine whether this county can become a prosperous peaceful success, or whether it will instead become deeply divided, violent and poverty-stricken waste land.
And if you think that I am suggesting that only black or poorly educated people fall victim to these sorts of tactics, you would be sadly wrong. The people in Germany who followed Hitler were supposedly civilised, supposedly educated , supposedly Christian, and certainly white. Look how easily they fell for his racist propaganda - and this in the 20th Century not in middle ages or during the inquisition.
The Xenophobic killings and attacks on foreign black refugees which took place a few years ago in this country was shocking enough on its own. But it is even more chilling if one considers that that this might have been a trial run. I
Consider this. If mobs can turn on, kill and rob successful local refugees from other parts of Africa on the pretext that they are stealing jobs and opportunities from locals, just imagine what could be achieved by directing even greater angry mobs against people are said to be responsible for apartheid and who will be accused of continuing to benefit from it.
The opposition parties are all hoping for a close election. I wonder whether they should be careful about that for which they ask. It could just be the spark the powder keg has been waiting for.
I found it amusing when, during the 2000 US Presidential election, the results were stalled because of disputes and constant recounts in Florida.
Robert Mugabe then made a public and highly generous offer to send Zimbabwean Election Monitors to assist the Americans. You have to hand it to him, it was a once in a life time opportunity for him, and he did not let it go begging.
He was, of course, having his little revenge for the US & Britain's insistence on having foreign election monitors to monitor his so-called "free and fair" elections. Needless to say such monitors were not permitted. But like minded monitors from ...wait for it, South Africa, were indeed permitted.
Yes, it was funny, but ultimately the joke was on him. That US election was quite peaceful (despite the nation being armed to the teeth) and when the US Supreme Court finally spoke, the entire nation accepted the decision and went about their business.
This differs slightly from the obligatory genocide which has often preceded and followed close elections on this continent.
In September 1989, I participated in the Democratic march to the City Hall led by Bishop Tutu and many other UDF activists. The apartheid regime was crumbling and I looked forward to the new, non-racial and democratic South Africa which would replace it.
Today, that dream seems further removed than ever. This is not the SA of people like Mandela, Tutu and Biko, Jay Naidu, and Trevor Manuel,.
South Africa today is becoming a highly polarised society which seems more divided than ever. The ideal of entering politics to serve the needs of the people, and the respect for excellence, for the rule of law, for justice and for a truly non-racist society are all being steadily eroded as those whose incompetence is exceeded only by their greed steadily gain a steely grip on the levers of power. There is a price to pay for such greed, corruption and incompetence, and it far exceeds the forty billion rands of taxpayers money which is wasted each year.
I often wondered about why the Jews in Germany did not leave when surely they could see the signs of the horror which awaited them. But one forgets that they were not just Jews, they were also Germans. And to be fair, could the Jews in Germany really be blamed for believing that their fellow Germans were too civilised and too Christian to fall for Hitler's anti-Semitic arguments. Many Jews must have believed that the anti-Semitic wave in Germany would be of short duration and that common sense would prevail.
In Zimbabwe, about a third of the country now lives and works in SA. Most are not here by choice and would love to return home. Their numbers are divided between the political and the economic refugees.
More and more white South Africans are starting to experience a sense of unease about their future in this country. IF the 2009 Xenophobic attacks on African refugees in South Africa had been restricted to one area, this could have been passed off as an aberration which was untypical. Instead these attacks spread to cities across South Africa like wild fire, and many refugees were attacked or killed, and many Somalis had their business looted. The international community were horrified and FIFA even considered moving the 2010 World Cup Soccer tournament to another country.
We have a government which spent Billions on arms instead of addressing the inequities of apartheid. The masses are growing tired of ANC promises of a better life and violent protests against the government are growing increasingly common. As the cost of corruption and the cost of appointing one's friends and political allies to top jobs instead of using excellence as a criterion continues to increase, the government's ability to address the people's needs will continue to decline. It's a time bomb! But unlike Germany, and Zimbabwe, the warning signs here are anything but subtle.
In such a political climate, one requires political leaders of vision who will resist the temptation to use racially inflammatory language and who will refuse to exploit racial divisions to win elections. And though apartheid was an evil, some twenty years have passed since the first democratic elections in South Africa in 1994. However tempting it may be for the government cast all the blame for the poverty and inequity in SA at the doors of apartheid and however attempting it is to remind people of the evils which the white minority government admittedly perpetrated, it is also time for the government to take responsibility for the twenty years it has been in power since then.
Constantly reminding people that they are all victims of apartheid does little to encourage people or to empower people to take responsibility for their own lives. Secondly, instead of empowering people, constantly reinforcing the victim mentality amongst the previously disadvantaged serves to fuel the sort of resentment which can easily spill over into violence. Also, constantly relying upon past injustice does little for national unity. Constantly referring to the past also emphasis white people in terms of that which happened in the past instead of facilitating a non racial society.
Germans will know what I am talking about. At some point, one has to move away from associating Germans today with those from the past who were Nazi's. Whilst no German wishes to deny the Nazi's crimes, they also do not wish to be associated with or defined by that party or their deeds.
However expedient it may be for the ANC to try to maintain power by resorting to the politics of division, one hopes that they will realise that in the end, if the resentment generated ends up in violence, there will be no winners and many losers.
I can only hope that the old guard of the ANC will somehow find a way to start a new struggle to reclaim the legacy left to this wonderful country by Nelson Mandela.
And may the Good Lord also see it fit to keep Bishop Tutu with us for a while longer. He gave us hope in the dark days of apartheid. And like in the old days where he spoke out against the injustices of apartheid, he continues to challenge the injustices, the corruption and the excesses of the new South African government.
Although I'm tempted to leave South Africa, I will not do so as long as there are brave people like Bishop Tutu around. Fortunately, despite everything I have written above, thousand of South Africans have turned their backs on the politics of race. Thousands of us also refuse to allow ourselves to be defined by our historical roles as victims or as oppressors. More and more people are refusing to permit the government to rely upon apartheid as an excuse for the nepotism, the increasing corruption and the mismanagement which affects service delivery across the country now.
The recent and highly controversial toll gate project in Gauteng is a case in point. It is apposed by unions, workers and by various opposition parties. Whether we choose to be united and empowered by that which we have in common and by our common future, or whether we allow ourselves to be divided and to remain victims of our past will determine whether this county can become a prosperous peaceful success, or whether it will instead become deeply divided, violent and poverty-stricken waste land.
Thursday, 24 April 2014
MH370 - 24 April 2014 update! (30 June 2014 update)
The updates feature in reverse date order. My main article of 27 April 2014 follows below & after the updates:
30 JUne 2014:
TELEGRAPH
Pilot of missing Flight 370 has been named ‘chief suspect’
29 June 2014 Update: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10933917/MH370-New-evidence-of-cockpit-tampering-as-investigation-into-missing-plane-continues.html
My COMMENTS ON THE ABOVE TWO ARTICLES:
The article regarding cockpit tampering confirms that experts believe someone in the cockpit deliberately switched off a power unit. This analyst is not in the least surprised. This was NEVER anything but an unlawful act, by a hijacker, crew member or pilot. Said so at the outset and still remain of that view.
As so the Captain's elevation: Although the pilots must rank highly as likely suspects (in addition to other crew or hijackers) that at least one of them was involved, or even solely responsible, I do not consider it fair to suggest that one deleted flight to an Indian Ocean Island on his Flight Simulator Computer at home can be regarded as compelling evidence for or against the Captain.
As a flight simulator pilot myself, I can say that half the fun of the programme is to fly to exotic places and to try to land larger airliners on shorter runways or at airports known to be difficult. The saved flight could have been entirely innocent for all we know.
The fact that he was the last person to speak to ATC is something which might be a pointer to his involvement. But that assumes the absence of any 3rd party cockpit incursion which may have caused the Captain to operate under duress.
Unlawful cockpit interference remains the most likely cause, and one of the two pilots must rank as persons of interest, but I would be reluctant to take it further than that on the evidence available.
AND SEE: My blog of 29 June 2014 re: ATSB Report. New ATSB theory no game changer. Does not exclude cockpit interference
http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/06/mh-370-new-atsb-theory-does-not-exclude.html
16 April 2014 update:
*The latest news is that Mr Houston (for whom I have immense respect) has again stressed how difficult discovery and recovery of the wreck will be. In the absence of wreckage, all I can say is:
"Houston, I think you've got a problem!"
24 April 2014 Article follows below:
In this update, I shall deal with the absence of any confirmed debris from the aircraft and later, I shall elaborate on my theory, first published on this Blog 36 hours or so after the aircraft disappeared, as to the likely causes of such disappearance.
The signals or pings picked up a couple of weeks ago in the search area in the Indian Ocean seemed to suggest that the search for the missing Flight MH370 was being conducted in the actual area in which the aircraft went down.
Satellite handshake data obtained from Britain, which emanated from the aircraft, caused experts come up with two flight corridors: a southern one ending in the Indian Ocean around 800km or more off the Western Australian Coast, and a northern one ending somewhere in Asia.
The Northern corridor was apparently dismissed because Indian military radar and that of other countries in to the north of India apparently did not pick up any unidentified flight on the evening/morning the airliner went missing. In addition, searches conducted along the "northern corridor" apparently were unable to locate any signs of a crash.
Submersible craft have searched the seabed in the area where the pings were detected. So far nothing has been detected. To be fair, the depth of the ocean and the uneven terrain in the search area were factors which were always going to make the search a less than straightforward exercise.
However, the absence of any debris from the aircraft is becoming a serious concern, particularly since seven weeks have elapsed since it vanished.
Experts in Ocean currents have suggested that debris from the search areas linked to the Southern Corridor is likely to travel westwards, and could end up either on the Western Australian Coast or the Western Tasmanian Coast. This ought to have occurred by now.
Yesterday at 11 am UK time, it was reported that debris which may be linked to the missing MH370 airliner may have washed up on a beach to the south of Perth, Australia. The Australian Transport Safety Bureau have reported that this debris is NOT part of flight MH370. I assume that regular searches of the entire Western Australian Coast, much of which is apparently remote, are being conducted in addition to the searches at sea. If not such searches should be initiated at once.
If debris which is identified as coming from the aircraft does not turn up on the said coasts reasonably soon, it will raise serious questions as to whether the missing airliner's black boxes were indeed the source of the pings which were detected. The chances that the aircraft remained intact after it crashed, or even a pilot controlled water landing at sea are highly remote.
It is so that the aircraft remained intact during the recent miracle landing on the Hudson river in New York. Firstly, the river was relatively flat, and the pilot involved demonstrated superb airmanship. One cannot, however, compare a river to that part of the Indian Ocean, which usually has high swells. If a wing or an engine of the aircraft, were to strike the a wave or the water, slightly before the other engine or wing, the forward momentum of the remainder of the aircraft would force the plane to cartwheel around the point of that strike and a partial or total breakup of the aircraft would be inevitable. I refer people to the Ethiopian Airlines crash off the Seychelles, which was filmed and is available in the Internet.
If we accept the "suicidal pilot" theory, and further accept that he was alive and in control until the end, then its likely he tried to replicate the Miracle landing on the Hudson. After all, if his plan was to make the aircraft disappear in a deep part of the ocean where it would be difficult to find, it would make sense to make the plane's recovery even more difficult by attempting to land it intact so it could sink intact. However, as stated above, it is unlikely that such an intact landing and sinking at sea would be successful.
It can thus be assumed that the aircraft is likely to have broken up and that significant floatable debris, from seat cushions to items of luggage would have been strewn across the point of impact. Further items would have floated to the surface later.
Given the costs involved of an expanded underwater search, it is now imperative that debris from the plane is found. Although I still favour the generally accepted theory that the Southern Corridor is the likely route the aircraft followed, and I also accept that the pings are most likely to have originated from the aircraft, the absence of any debris after all this time is causing me, and others, to wonder whether the Northern Corridor, or perhaps other flight paths were perhaps prematurely excluded. The longer the period without any debris becomes, the more the view that everyone in the search may have to go back to the drawing board will continue to gain ground.
You will recall that I suggested that cockpit incursion by a hijacker and/or crew was the most likely cause of the disappearance of the airliner in a blog I published here about 36 hours or so after the aircraft disappeared. Of course, when I referred to cockpit incursion and the possibility of crew involvement, this included a suicidal or rogue pilot gaining unlawful control of the cockpit.
My reasons for concluding this were and are based upon the following:
Since then, we have learned that the aircraft apparently changed altitudes, and after flying over back over Malaysia in a Westerly direction, it then apparently again changed course and turned South on a course which, quite conveniently prevented it from appearing on Indonesian military radar, or that of anybody else.
In the weeks following the crash, many experts tried to suggest that the accident could well be explained by a massive technical failure, such as decompression, which could have incapacitated the crew, and which could have left the aircraft flying itself...either on auto-pilot, or using its flight computers which will, apparently, in the absence of flight input from a pilot, try to keep the plane aloft by adhering to the last inputs received. This is the so-called zombie plane theory.
When the zombie theory was first advanced, I considered it an unlikely outside possibility. Outside, because the five or so facts in the bulleted paragraphs above, considered cumulatively, scream unlawful interference with cockpit operations by someone, whilst a technical failure which could explain those events in addition to the continued five hour flight did not readily suggest itself. The zombie theory is also rendered even more improbable against the backdrop of the superb safety record of the Boeing 777.
But in my view, the altitude changes, the heading changes by the aircraft, and the final course change onto the Southern or Northern Corridor cannot be satisfactorily explained by the zombie plane theory.
Although the zombie theory was advanced and initially supported by more than a few aviation experts and pilots, it seems that the weight of opinion amongst aviation analysts now heavily favours the unlawful cockpit interference theory i.e. Hijack (with or without pilot assistance, Suicide/rogue pilot.
One of the reasons why the zombie theory was favoured by some experts was because the Suicide/Rogue pilot, or Hijack theories were regarded as implausible. In support, they argued that a suicidal pilot would not have flown the aircraft around the world. Instead, they suggest that he would have crashed it immediately. And if hijackers were involved, they were probably quite organised, and would not have ordered the aircraft onto a pointless flight path which would end in the sea.
The problem is that the facts we do know point strongly towards unlawful cockpit interference and not catastrophic technical failure. When one eliminates all the likely causes on the evidence available, leaving one cause which cannot be discounted, then however unlikely it may be, that is your cause. Alternatively stated, you can't discount human interference because the motives or methods seem improbable in an endeavour to support a theory, like the zombie plane, which on the known facts, is even more improbable.
As for pilot suicide, there are two incidents, one in Egypt and one in Indonesia, where pilot suicide was found to be the cause by the NTSB. To be fair, in both cases, the NTSB were accused by the locals of bias against the pilots and bias in favour of Boeing and the findings were disputed.
If one of the pilots did wish to commit suicide, I can think of several reasons why that pilot may have decided that he wanted to do so in a way which might prevent the aircraft from ever being found:
There are those who suggest that some importance attaches to the fact that neither pilot asked to fly together or was necessarily aware in advance that they were scheduled to fly together. That may or may not be true. If a pilot was involved, however, it is probable that he would have acted alone and that his plans would have included attacking and disabling the other pilot.
It is dangerous to discard theories which remain the most probable simply because they seem to involve conduct which is unlikely or far-fetched. Most of us would never have dreamed of the 9/11 scenario and, were we to have been told of it in advance, many would probably have rejected the idea as a far-fetched and second rate Hollywood-type plot.
Prior to 9/11, the world understood why hijackers might take control of an airliner with a view to demanding a ransom or the release of prisoners etc. They accepted the idea that hijackers might kill all on board as a last resort - if their hands were forced. However, hijacking with a view to taking control of an aircraft, and committing suicide by using the aircraft as a veritable missile, was simply unthinkable.
The audacious Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in 1941 was also clearly unthinkable to many until it occurred. How else can you explain the total lack of preparedness?
People who plan to commit suicide may not always think or plan rationally, and rejecting the possibility of pilot suicide because it makes little sense ignores that reality.
As for possibility that hijackers were involved, I accept that it is unlikely that they would have gone to the trouble to take the aircraft simply to have it crash in the sea. And yet, the Ethiopian Airlines aircraft was hijacked over Africa and told to fly to Australia. The hijackers were told there was insufficient fuel to reach Australia, but they claimed the pilot was lying and they insisted he proceed. Inevitably, the aircraft ran out of fuel and it crashed into the sea near the Seychelles. This story seems so outrageous, and the conduct of the hijackers so preposterous, that it all beggars belief. And yet, it happened.
I doubt that the hijackers on MH370, if there were any, were quite as ignorant. On the contrary, their operation, if there was one, was probably well planned. Perhaps their intention was to land somewhere and later use the plane as a missile (al la 9/11), and maybe it went wrong somehow.
One possibility I can offer is that one or both pilots may have tried to overpower one or more hijackers in an attempt to retake control of the cockpit at some point after they crossed back over Malaysian airspace and were heading west. Or perhaps they tried to save the situation and in the process risked not complying fully with the instructions from the hijacker. Anything like that could have resulted in a violent situation in which a firearm or an explosive might have been discharged and perhaps the aircraft depressurised.
The aircraft could have been deliberately or accidentally turned South during such an incident.
This could leave us with a more plausible explanation of a zombie plane that flew on to the Indian Ocean. It's a zombie theory I could buy into, since its root cause would remain unlawful interference.
A blogger suggested that perhaps the aircraft descended until it could ascend to fly below another scheduled aircraft heading somewhere West or North. Civilian radar, and perhaps even military radar, would then not picked it up on radar as only the transponder of the scheduled aircraft would be detected.
The possibilities are many and the conspiracy theories abounding on the internet are just as plentiful. The truth is that there is not enough evidence available now to say which is the correct theory.
All I can say with almost total certainty is that unlawful human conduct must have been the cause. There are also those who suggest that we should all wait until the cockpit voice recorder reveals what really happened. They seem to forget that the cockpit voice recorder, which only normally only records the last hour of the flight, will be probably be silent and reveal little or nothing.
A suicide pilot, if there was one, may have committed suicide well prior to the end. If he stayed on to watch the end, he may have kept silent for the last hour to avoid being recorded. It is sad that the voice recorder, in these modern times, only records one hour, but there it is.
The flight data recorder, however, will give the data for the entire flight, and this will at least enable one to establish what pilot inputs occurred at the time the transponder was disabled in addition to the circumstances in which they occurred. This may be instructive, or indeed, even conclusive.
In the meantime, the waiting continues.
+MH370 News
+Malaysia Airlines MH370
+Air Crash Investigation
+Cockpit-Simulation
30 JUne 2014:
TELEGRAPH
Pilot of missing Flight 370 has been named ‘chief suspect’
By Danika Fears June 23, 2014 | 5:52amMORE ON:
"Investigators have named the pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 as the “chief suspect” in the plane’s mysterious disappearance after clearing everyone else on board.
Malaysian detectives grew increasingly suspicious of the pilot after discovering that Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah programmed his flight simulator with a route that would land a plane on a small island in the Indian Ocean, the Sunday Times of London reports.
Shah had deleted the drills, but computer experts were able to recover them.
The official police investigation cleared all of the other 238 people on board the Boeing 777 that vanished on March 8."
My COMMENTS ON THE ABOVE TWO ARTICLES:
The article regarding cockpit tampering confirms that experts believe someone in the cockpit deliberately switched off a power unit. This analyst is not in the least surprised. This was NEVER anything but an unlawful act, by a hijacker, crew member or pilot. Said so at the outset and still remain of that view.
As so the Captain's elevation: Although the pilots must rank highly as likely suspects (in addition to other crew or hijackers) that at least one of them was involved, or even solely responsible, I do not consider it fair to suggest that one deleted flight to an Indian Ocean Island on his Flight Simulator Computer at home can be regarded as compelling evidence for or against the Captain.
As a flight simulator pilot myself, I can say that half the fun of the programme is to fly to exotic places and to try to land larger airliners on shorter runways or at airports known to be difficult. The saved flight could have been entirely innocent for all we know.
The fact that he was the last person to speak to ATC is something which might be a pointer to his involvement. But that assumes the absence of any 3rd party cockpit incursion which may have caused the Captain to operate under duress.
Unlawful cockpit interference remains the most likely cause, and one of the two pilots must rank as persons of interest, but I would be reluctant to take it further than that on the evidence available.
AND SEE: My blog of 29 June 2014 re: ATSB Report. New ATSB theory no game changer. Does not exclude cockpit interference
http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/06/mh-370-new-atsb-theory-does-not-exclude.html
16 April 2014 update:
*The latest news is that Mr Houston (for whom I have immense respect) has again stressed how difficult discovery and recovery of the wreck will be. In the absence of wreckage, all I can say is:
"Houston, I think you've got a problem!"
24 April 2014 Article follows below:
In this update, I shall deal with the absence of any confirmed debris from the aircraft and later, I shall elaborate on my theory, first published on this Blog 36 hours or so after the aircraft disappeared, as to the likely causes of such disappearance.
The signals or pings picked up a couple of weeks ago in the search area in the Indian Ocean seemed to suggest that the search for the missing Flight MH370 was being conducted in the actual area in which the aircraft went down.
Satellite handshake data obtained from Britain, which emanated from the aircraft, caused experts come up with two flight corridors: a southern one ending in the Indian Ocean around 800km or more off the Western Australian Coast, and a northern one ending somewhere in Asia.
The Northern corridor was apparently dismissed because Indian military radar and that of other countries in to the north of India apparently did not pick up any unidentified flight on the evening/morning the airliner went missing. In addition, searches conducted along the "northern corridor" apparently were unable to locate any signs of a crash.
Submersible craft have searched the seabed in the area where the pings were detected. So far nothing has been detected. To be fair, the depth of the ocean and the uneven terrain in the search area were factors which were always going to make the search a less than straightforward exercise.
However, the absence of any debris from the aircraft is becoming a serious concern, particularly since seven weeks have elapsed since it vanished.
Experts in Ocean currents have suggested that debris from the search areas linked to the Southern Corridor is likely to travel westwards, and could end up either on the Western Australian Coast or the Western Tasmanian Coast. This ought to have occurred by now.
Yesterday at 11 am UK time, it was reported that debris which may be linked to the missing MH370 airliner may have washed up on a beach to the south of Perth, Australia. The Australian Transport Safety Bureau have reported that this debris is NOT part of flight MH370. I assume that regular searches of the entire Western Australian Coast, much of which is apparently remote, are being conducted in addition to the searches at sea. If not such searches should be initiated at once.
If debris which is identified as coming from the aircraft does not turn up on the said coasts reasonably soon, it will raise serious questions as to whether the missing airliner's black boxes were indeed the source of the pings which were detected. The chances that the aircraft remained intact after it crashed, or even a pilot controlled water landing at sea are highly remote.
It is so that the aircraft remained intact during the recent miracle landing on the Hudson river in New York. Firstly, the river was relatively flat, and the pilot involved demonstrated superb airmanship. One cannot, however, compare a river to that part of the Indian Ocean, which usually has high swells. If a wing or an engine of the aircraft, were to strike the a wave or the water, slightly before the other engine or wing, the forward momentum of the remainder of the aircraft would force the plane to cartwheel around the point of that strike and a partial or total breakup of the aircraft would be inevitable. I refer people to the Ethiopian Airlines crash off the Seychelles, which was filmed and is available in the Internet.
If we accept the "suicidal pilot" theory, and further accept that he was alive and in control until the end, then its likely he tried to replicate the Miracle landing on the Hudson. After all, if his plan was to make the aircraft disappear in a deep part of the ocean where it would be difficult to find, it would make sense to make the plane's recovery even more difficult by attempting to land it intact so it could sink intact. However, as stated above, it is unlikely that such an intact landing and sinking at sea would be successful.
It can thus be assumed that the aircraft is likely to have broken up and that significant floatable debris, from seat cushions to items of luggage would have been strewn across the point of impact. Further items would have floated to the surface later.
Given the costs involved of an expanded underwater search, it is now imperative that debris from the plane is found. Although I still favour the generally accepted theory that the Southern Corridor is the likely route the aircraft followed, and I also accept that the pings are most likely to have originated from the aircraft, the absence of any debris after all this time is causing me, and others, to wonder whether the Northern Corridor, or perhaps other flight paths were perhaps prematurely excluded. The longer the period without any debris becomes, the more the view that everyone in the search may have to go back to the drawing board will continue to gain ground.
You will recall that I suggested that cockpit incursion by a hijacker and/or crew was the most likely cause of the disappearance of the airliner in a blog I published here about 36 hours or so after the aircraft disappeared. Of course, when I referred to cockpit incursion and the possibility of crew involvement, this included a suicidal or rogue pilot gaining unlawful control of the cockpit.
My reasons for concluding this were and are based upon the following:
- The fact that the transponder was switched off causing the aircraft to disappear from ATC secondary radar.
- The fact that the aircraft reporting system was switched off.
- The fact that the aircraft signed off from Malaysian ATC and did not thereafter make contact with Vietnamese ATC. If anyone wanted to take control of an aircraft without attracting prompt attention, then the handover between area controllers is the ideal time to do so. It gave the aircraft time to divert and to do so unnoticed. Malaysian ATC assumed that the Aircraft was under the Control of Vietnamese ATC and Vietnamese ATC must have assumed that the scheduled airliner was either late or had been delayed at Kuala Lampur for some reason.
- The fact that the aircraft immediately changed course after the hand-off from Malaysian ATC.
- The fact that the change of course was not accompanied by any communication with ATC, which is normal practice for a diversion. Although such failure to communicate with ATC immediately could be explained by an emergency which required AVIATION & NAVIATION prior to COMMUNICATION, the fact that such failure to communicate persisted indefinitely was highly suspicious to me. There are various ways for the pilots to communicate an emergency, including using the transponder to enter a transponder code for radio failure or a hijack situation.
- Ultimately however, it was the combination of all the above factors in one event which lead me to my conclusion. The 777 is a very reliable aircraft with backup systems in case certain essential systems fail. I could not, and still cannot conceive of a technical emergency which was so catastrophic that it was capable on the one hand of disabling all the above systems, yet on the other hand it nonetheless permitted the aircraft to stay aloft for five or so more hours.
Since then, we have learned that the aircraft apparently changed altitudes, and after flying over back over Malaysia in a Westerly direction, it then apparently again changed course and turned South on a course which, quite conveniently prevented it from appearing on Indonesian military radar, or that of anybody else.
In the weeks following the crash, many experts tried to suggest that the accident could well be explained by a massive technical failure, such as decompression, which could have incapacitated the crew, and which could have left the aircraft flying itself...either on auto-pilot, or using its flight computers which will, apparently, in the absence of flight input from a pilot, try to keep the plane aloft by adhering to the last inputs received. This is the so-called zombie plane theory.
When the zombie theory was first advanced, I considered it an unlikely outside possibility. Outside, because the five or so facts in the bulleted paragraphs above, considered cumulatively, scream unlawful interference with cockpit operations by someone, whilst a technical failure which could explain those events in addition to the continued five hour flight did not readily suggest itself. The zombie theory is also rendered even more improbable against the backdrop of the superb safety record of the Boeing 777.
But in my view, the altitude changes, the heading changes by the aircraft, and the final course change onto the Southern or Northern Corridor cannot be satisfactorily explained by the zombie plane theory.
Although the zombie theory was advanced and initially supported by more than a few aviation experts and pilots, it seems that the weight of opinion amongst aviation analysts now heavily favours the unlawful cockpit interference theory i.e. Hijack (with or without pilot assistance, Suicide/rogue pilot.
One of the reasons why the zombie theory was favoured by some experts was because the Suicide/Rogue pilot, or Hijack theories were regarded as implausible. In support, they argued that a suicidal pilot would not have flown the aircraft around the world. Instead, they suggest that he would have crashed it immediately. And if hijackers were involved, they were probably quite organised, and would not have ordered the aircraft onto a pointless flight path which would end in the sea.
The problem is that the facts we do know point strongly towards unlawful cockpit interference and not catastrophic technical failure. When one eliminates all the likely causes on the evidence available, leaving one cause which cannot be discounted, then however unlikely it may be, that is your cause. Alternatively stated, you can't discount human interference because the motives or methods seem improbable in an endeavour to support a theory, like the zombie plane, which on the known facts, is even more improbable.
As for pilot suicide, there are two incidents, one in Egypt and one in Indonesia, where pilot suicide was found to be the cause by the NTSB. To be fair, in both cases, the NTSB were accused by the locals of bias against the pilots and bias in favour of Boeing and the findings were disputed.
If one of the pilots did wish to commit suicide, I can think of several reasons why that pilot may have decided that he wanted to do so in a way which might prevent the aircraft from ever being found:
- Firstly, he may have feared that his life-insurance would not pay out if suicide was the cause of his death. If the aircraft was simply lost, the insurers would not discover the cause and would be compelled to pay out to his beneficiaries if any.
- Secondly, the pilot may not have wished his friends or family to find out that he had committed suicide for any number of reasons.
- Thirdly, the pilot could have held some grudge against his employer and could may have relished the idea of committing suicide in a manner which would also embarrass his employers to boot. The thought of his employers funding a costly search or having to explain the unexplainable vanishing of the aircraft to the world may have appealed to him.
- Fourthly, the pilot may have wanted to commit suicide in a way which would, in his mind, also amount to the perfect crime.
- The pilot's actions could have been politically motivated.
There are those who suggest that some importance attaches to the fact that neither pilot asked to fly together or was necessarily aware in advance that they were scheduled to fly together. That may or may not be true. If a pilot was involved, however, it is probable that he would have acted alone and that his plans would have included attacking and disabling the other pilot.
It is dangerous to discard theories which remain the most probable simply because they seem to involve conduct which is unlikely or far-fetched. Most of us would never have dreamed of the 9/11 scenario and, were we to have been told of it in advance, many would probably have rejected the idea as a far-fetched and second rate Hollywood-type plot.
Prior to 9/11, the world understood why hijackers might take control of an airliner with a view to demanding a ransom or the release of prisoners etc. They accepted the idea that hijackers might kill all on board as a last resort - if their hands were forced. However, hijacking with a view to taking control of an aircraft, and committing suicide by using the aircraft as a veritable missile, was simply unthinkable.
The audacious Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in 1941 was also clearly unthinkable to many until it occurred. How else can you explain the total lack of preparedness?
People who plan to commit suicide may not always think or plan rationally, and rejecting the possibility of pilot suicide because it makes little sense ignores that reality.
As for possibility that hijackers were involved, I accept that it is unlikely that they would have gone to the trouble to take the aircraft simply to have it crash in the sea. And yet, the Ethiopian Airlines aircraft was hijacked over Africa and told to fly to Australia. The hijackers were told there was insufficient fuel to reach Australia, but they claimed the pilot was lying and they insisted he proceed. Inevitably, the aircraft ran out of fuel and it crashed into the sea near the Seychelles. This story seems so outrageous, and the conduct of the hijackers so preposterous, that it all beggars belief. And yet, it happened.
I doubt that the hijackers on MH370, if there were any, were quite as ignorant. On the contrary, their operation, if there was one, was probably well planned. Perhaps their intention was to land somewhere and later use the plane as a missile (al la 9/11), and maybe it went wrong somehow.
One possibility I can offer is that one or both pilots may have tried to overpower one or more hijackers in an attempt to retake control of the cockpit at some point after they crossed back over Malaysian airspace and were heading west. Or perhaps they tried to save the situation and in the process risked not complying fully with the instructions from the hijacker. Anything like that could have resulted in a violent situation in which a firearm or an explosive might have been discharged and perhaps the aircraft depressurised.
The aircraft could have been deliberately or accidentally turned South during such an incident.
This could leave us with a more plausible explanation of a zombie plane that flew on to the Indian Ocean. It's a zombie theory I could buy into, since its root cause would remain unlawful interference.
A blogger suggested that perhaps the aircraft descended until it could ascend to fly below another scheduled aircraft heading somewhere West or North. Civilian radar, and perhaps even military radar, would then not picked it up on radar as only the transponder of the scheduled aircraft would be detected.
The possibilities are many and the conspiracy theories abounding on the internet are just as plentiful. The truth is that there is not enough evidence available now to say which is the correct theory.
All I can say with almost total certainty is that unlawful human conduct must have been the cause. There are also those who suggest that we should all wait until the cockpit voice recorder reveals what really happened. They seem to forget that the cockpit voice recorder, which only normally only records the last hour of the flight, will be probably be silent and reveal little or nothing.
A suicide pilot, if there was one, may have committed suicide well prior to the end. If he stayed on to watch the end, he may have kept silent for the last hour to avoid being recorded. It is sad that the voice recorder, in these modern times, only records one hour, but there it is.
The flight data recorder, however, will give the data for the entire flight, and this will at least enable one to establish what pilot inputs occurred at the time the transponder was disabled in addition to the circumstances in which they occurred. This may be instructive, or indeed, even conclusive.
In the meantime, the waiting continues.
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