Uncertainty about +Ed Miliband's leadership is poisonous for the #LabourParty

Uncertainty about Ed Miliband's leadership is poisonous for Labour's chances in +UK election 2015. #UKelection2015

With next year's general Election in the UK drawing ever closer, hardly a day goes by without fresh rumours or continuing whispers from within Labour's ranks regarding Ed Miliband's leadership of the Party.

More recently, there have been reports in the media hinting that +Ed Miliband  has the full support of less than half of his Shadow Cabinet.

RECENT UK POLLS
Added to this, recent polls in the UK continue to reveal two things:

 Firstly, although the +Conservatives are hardly a firm favourite amongst the majority of British voters, +David Cameron  ranks well ahead of Ed Miliband when the voting public are asked about which of the two would be the better Prime Minister.

(Between 30-40% have said they view Cameron as having what it takes to be a good prime minister, whilst Miliband's clocks in at between 15-30%. One poll had Miliband behind +Liberal Democrats  leader Nick Clegg as favoured prime minister material.)

Secondly, when asked which party the voters trust most to do a good job of managing the British economy, the Conservatives also get the thumbs up ahead of Labour, although the +Tory  lead in the polls in regard to this aspect is significantly lower.)

The challenge facing Labour in the upcoming election cannot be overstated. Labour can count on loyal support of around 25% or so of the electorate. That is well short of the 40% or so they need to form a government.

SWING VOTERS
The outcome of the election will, as always, depend on the  whims of the so-called swing voters, people without specific party loyalties.  There are arguably several factors which would cause voters to shift their vote from Conservative to Labour, or the other way around in any given election. In this election, these voters will also be woed by other parties such as +UKIP  , the Lib Dems and (in Scotland) the +Scottish Independence Party .

SCOTLAND
Scotland normally delivers around 35 or so safe Labour seats in the British Parliament. There are some predictions that, for several reasons, Labour may lose around 10 or so of those seats to the Scottish Independence Party. This alone, if it came to pass, might be enough to ensure another four years of +Labour Party as the official Opposition.

Although some of Labour's loss of support in Scotland could be considered fall-out from the recent independence referendum, the problem is also that most Scots have not taken to Ed Miliband at all.

Prime Ministerial Calibre
If any one factor ranks significantly with swing voters in the UK, it is the electability of a party's leader.

The reason why the UK has a hung-parliament at present could be ascribed to a large extent to the good performances of +Nick Clegg , the Liberal Democrat leader, in the television debates leading up to the last election. He came across as capable, intelligent, honest, and last but not least, likeable. The substantially increased support the Lib Dems attainted in the polls following a superb performance by Nick Clegg in one of the earlier debates leaves no doubt of the significance of the link between a party's fortunes and the perceived electability of a party's leader.

The fact that the overwhelming majority of the public do not perceive Ed Miliband to have prime ministerial qualities means that many swing voters are unlikely to vote Labour. That alone is arguably fatal to Labour's chances of  gaining an overwhelming majority in next year's election.

Indeed, the best Labour could have hoped for is, principally due to its core support, that it may win sufficient seats in the event of a hung-parliament to give it a chance of forming part of a new-coalition government.

I said 'could' because Labour's problems go far beyond the fact that the voting public see Ed Miliband as unelectable. The problem is that it is becoming increasingly and abundantly obvious that either Ed Miliband no longer has the support of the majority of his Shadow Cabinet or of Labour MP's, or alternatively, a significant number of Labour MP's & Shadow Cabinet Ministers no longer have any  or sufficient confidence in Ed Miliband's leadership, or in his electability.

The problem of course, is that the more the public perceive that the Party itself has doubts about Ed Miliband's leadership, the more this feeds the growing public perception about Ed's electability. This in turn, adds to the party's said concerns. Clearly a toxic, spiral effect which is guaranteed to put an end to any of Labour's hopes for any advances or success in next year's general election.

TOO LATE TO CHANGE?
Most analysts seem to be of the view that it is too late for Labour to concede that they made a mistake by electing Ed instead of his eminently more electable brother, David, to be party leader.

The polished, suave David Miliband clearly has the x-factor which would have caused him to be viewed both as electable and as a man of prime ministerial calibre.

Ed, on the other hand, comes across as dodgy. His arguments during television interviews and at most prime minister's question times almost always come across as desperate or contrived. Sadly, he has always struck me as the sort of person who might wander around a public park in a grey raincoat, seeking to flash at school girls in an effort to reveal the absence of garments underneath.

IT'S NEVER TO LATE TO JETTISON THAT WHICH IS TOXIC

If I were Ed Miliband, I would have no choice but to consider my position as leader. If it were only the public's view that Ed Miliband does not strike any sort of prime ministerial note, that would be one thing. But, as stated above, his added perceived failure to win the support of most party MP's so close to an election renders him a toxic liability to the Labour Party.

Ed Miliband should stand down as Labour leader now. In my view, the damage this might to Labour's chances in the next election pales into insignificance when compared to the damage Labour will suffer as long as the public perceives that a significant section of the Labour Party shares their own misgiving's about Ed's leadership and/or his electability.

At the very least, Ed should announce that he is standing down as Party leader in order to permit him to contest the leadership of the party against any would-be contenders. As bruising as any such leadership contest might be so-close to an election, the reward the winner, even if it were Ed, would reap is that the public and the media would at least no longer have grounds to question the leader's support amongst Labour. And this in turn, would make for a far less toxic situation as far as Labour itself is concerned. I am convinced that the Party could only gain by ending the present, persistent and highly poisonous speculation about its leader.

I realise I am arguing for a bold move. But if Ed were to make such a move, and were then to lose the leadership, his willingness to sacrifice himself for the Party's cause would earn him considerable respect.

Alternatively, if he were to win a leadership contest, or if no alternative candidate presented him or herself, he would arguably emerge as brave, selfless, and decisive.

In the event that no other candidate were to contest for the leadership, it might not necessarily satisfy anyone that Ed's position would be safe if Labour lost the election. But at least it would signify that Labour has managed to agree upon and unite behind Ed's leadership for the upcoming election campaign. That, on its own, would at the very least go a long way to improving Labour's chances in the next election.

A brave, decisive move is required. But the window for this high risk but potentially rewarding strategy, will close soon. The alternative is to prepare for another four years of David Cameron. (As an outsider, I thought he was a great prime minister) At least, if the Tories return to power we may be treated to another short but entertaining burst of +Harriet Harman during PM's question time.

Siegfried Walther  10 November 2014 Cape Town.


11 November update:
As indicated above bold moves were required by Labour and particularly by Ed Miliband to put an end to any perception of infighting or disunity around the leadership issue with Labour.


How did Ed address this problem? By denying the problem or the extent of it when he addressed business leaders. That simply demonstrates Ed's lack of political judgment. Such a denial only feeds the flames. Ed is TOXIC, TOXIC TOXIC. He can only redeem himself with his resignation as Party leader and by challenging the Party whisperers to come out from their hiding places and to take him in an agreed, shortened Leadership contest.


Can't see Labour pulling this one out of the fire...
SG WALTHER 11 Nov

See also: Media's role in (US) and other mass shootings http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-medias-role-in-mass-killings-school.html
#jokes +Humour.com #joke
http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/11/mother-in-law-joke-and-courtroom-skit.html

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