Malaysian airliner MH370: How close to the mark?

http://siegfriedwalther.blogspot.com/2014/04/mh370-24-april-2014-update.html


On Sunday evening already, I concluded that Cockpit Incursion or Crew (Pilot) Sabotage was the most likely cause of the missing airliner. This now seems to have become the governing theory.

Today is Friday, and little has changed. I argued on Sunday that the Airliner, if it maintained its course, ought to have crossed the Vietnam mainland after 1hour and fifteen minutes. I argued that any period in the Gulf of Thailand in excess of that must then be regarded as suspicious since the aircraft would clearly be in the wrong place.

The initial reports were that the airliner was last seen in the Gulf of Thailand, midway between Malaysia & Vietnam, after TWO HOURS. If this was so, I argued that the last forty five minutes of the flight on radar was suspicious since the airliner was in the wrong place.

Based on this, I was able to exclude catastrophic failure as a likely cause, since catastrophic failure is usually a sudden event which occurs quickly and seldom allows the pilots a chance to communicate with ATC. Since the pilots had 45 minutes of flying at cruising altitude, I concluded it was safe to exclude catastrophic failure. Had there been such a failure it would not have lasted forty five minutes. During the said "missing" 45 minutes, the pilots would have had sufficient chance to use one of the many communication systems on boards to communicate with ATC. Even the aircraft's sophisticated automated systems would have had a chance to send automated reports during those forty five minutes. No such reports were apparently sent we were told.

This is not to say that catastrophic failure can be excluded altogether, rather that it must move to the bottom of the pile of usual causes.

Mechanical failure can also be excluded for the same reason. Any mechanical failure which permits the aircraft to fly for another forty five minutes is also one which must allow the crew and the aircraft's automated alert message system a chance to communicate with ATC.

Pilot error could also be excluded, I felt, since I could not imagine a pilot error which would cause the pilots not to communicate with ATC for forty five minutes on any platform or one which would prevent the automated systems from broadcasting messages. The absence of:

1. ATC transmissions by Pilots for forty-five minutes;
2. The suspicious timing of the transponder being switched off, and no other unit being switched on in its place for forty five minutes, and
3. The apparent failure of the aircraft's automated systems to broadcast any messages to satellite to indicate any problems for forty five minutes 

           all happening at the same time for forty-five minutes suggests a deliberate attempt to interfere with these systems. All this suggested Hijack or Pilot Sabotage as the most likely cause of the disappearance and I went so far to aver that whoever interfered with these systems had knowledge of aircraft's systems.

It then transpired that the initial reports might have been wrong in that the aircraft's transponder went off after only an hour, shortly after handover from Malaysian ATC to Vietnam ATC. The aircraft said goodbye to Malaysian ATC, but never contacted Vietnam ATC and the aircraft's transponder was switched off.

This, I thought was the kiss of death to my theory since it permitted Mechanical Failure & catastrophic failure to return as theories.

Worse still, the false passport theory was also generally dismissed as being unrelated.

And yet, there remained various clues to suggest that my theory of Pilot Sabotage could yet hold water:

1. The Gulf of Thailand is shallow and relatively small and surrounded by many highly populated countries. The Gulf is also relatively shallow. So the failure to find the aircraft's wreckage again suggested that the aircraft may indeed have flown for some time after it disappeared from radar due to the transponder being switched off; Boats, people on the beaches in surrounding areas, search planes etc should have found something after four days.
2. Reports began to emerge that the aircraft may have turned around to attempt a return to Malaysia.  The longer the aircraft took to turn around, and to attempt a return, the more my theory in favour of pilot sabotage / cockpit incursion /hijacking must return to being the most prominent theory.
3. The timing of the transponder switch-off, immediately after being handed over to another area controller in Vietnam, is also a factor to be considered. It will be a while before Vietnam's area controller notices that the aircraft has not made contact. This would allow a pilot a chance to switch off the transponder without drawing attention of either the former area controller or the new controller for several minutes.
4. Further suggestions came to light that military radar spotted an unidentified aircraft heading from the Gulf of Thailand and crossing over Thailand. (Again, the aircraft is flying and is in the wrong place.)
5. Finally, it was suggested that there was one automated aircraft transmission to satellite which also placed the aircraft somewhere heading towards the Indian Ocean. This system apparently also stopped transmitting.
6. Apparently the latest is that aircraft automated messages indicate aircraft was flying on a new and recognised route towards the South West. This seems self evidently deliberate. Aircraft don't usually change course without being programmed to do so by changing the autopilot heading hold or changing the route the Autopilot Nav is using.

Taken together, and if some or all of the above are true, then it serves to exclude Pilot Error, Catastrophic failure, Mechanical failure as likely causes and it elevates Pilot Sabotage or Hijacking or Terrorism(with or without pilot involvement) by people who know aircraft systems well.

If I am correct, I still don't have any theory as to the reason for the said conduct or as to what eventually occurred. Was it pilot suicide by one of the pilots? If so, why wait so long? Was it a failed attempt to gain an airliner to use it as a missile by flying it into a US base in the Indian Ocean? Was it a bomb that eventually went off by accident. Has the plane landed somewhere and are the passengers currently hostages? I understand that many relatives are praying for this possibility which seems to be their only hope, albeit an unlikely one. I hope for a miracle!

Who knows what actually occured? These are the real questions which cannot be answered before the aircraft is found.