I believe that the current impasse between the USA and Russia over the Ukraine and Crimea can be resolved by permitting a proper referendum in Crimea about whether Crimea should opt for independence, remain as part of Ukraine, or be re-incorporated into Russia.
Most of the population of Crimea are Russian speaking and Crimea was in fact Russian a generation or so ago until Khrushchev of the former USSR granted it to the Ukraine.
Why that was done is a mystery to me since Russia has always sought a "warm" water port for its Black Sea Fleet. At present, its fleet is still in Crimea by agreement with the Ukraine.
However, since Crimea is presently part of the state of Ukraine, there are various conditions which must apply to the referendum.
Firstly, since any vote for independence or for reincorporation into Russia is constitutional in nature, a simple majority in any such referendum will not suffice. In order to change the status quo, the majority should be anything from 60% to the traditional two thirds mark. Perhaps a compromise of something between that would be in order.
Since Russia seems confident of overwhelming support of the people of Crimea, this should not present a problem to it.
Secondly, the referendum must permit the people of Crimea the choice to remain a part of the Ukraine. The present "illegal" referendum to be held tomorrow is illegal for many reasons, including its failure to permit the Crimeans a choice to remain a part of the Ukraine.
Thirdly, the referendum should be conducted under UN supervision and international monitors should be permitted.
Fourthly, the referendum should permit sufficient time and a proper democratic environment for people to conduct a proper campaign. The present conditions, in which armed Russian soldiers or militia are marching about, are intimidatory and not conducive to the conduct of a free and fair poll.
If Russia is so confident of the overwhelming support it claims and, to be fair, seems to have amongst the majority in Crimea, it should have no difficulty in agreeing to the above as a compromise.
The present referendum is a farce which will not be recognised internationally.
That said, I think the West has failed to recognise the fact that the spread of the EU towards Ukraine, and the growing number of NATO countries in former Soviet Bloc countries leaves Russians feeling uneasy. Russians see the Ukraine, and particularly Russian speaking parts of it, as part of their so-called "area of influence." A failure to appreciate that Russians feel a certain solidarity with Russian speakers in this area of influence -former Soviet republics which border on Russia - will do nothing to resolve the present impasse.
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